You may have seen the term xG used on bookmaker platforms or on various forums & telegram channels.
xG is simply a measurement of the quality/goalscoring likelihood.
For example, if there was a goal opportunity of 80% then the xG would be 0.8. If the chances of a goal opportunity were great, the higher the xG figure would be.
However, if a goal opportunity was more speculative, a long-range effort or made by low performing strikers the xG figure would be lower.
So if a goal opportunity had a 40% chance of being scored, this would be measured as 0.3 xG.
How can I bet using xG?
xG is just another part of your toolkit, as we’ve discussed previously you don’t need to use any of these things we mention, but having them in your betting arsenal can be the difference between finding a profitable opportunity and not finding one.
The percentages are based on data research and you may typically find xG on Bookmaker sites and analytic websites.
The percentage is calculated by the chance of a goal being scored and from positions of play.
SO for example a penalty may have a 70% chance of being converted, compared to a long-range goal which might have 20% chance of being converted. xG would be 0.70 and 0.20 for both of these goal opportunities.
The chances are then added up and both teams in a match receive their figures based on the performance of the game.
All of this is calculated after the game, which means you can’t use xG to really bet on the current events in time.
xG is calculated by many variables and we will list some of them below:
- Is the opportunity a shot or a header
- The distance of the shot or header
- The angle of the shot or header
- Was it a penalty
- Who was taking the opportunity
- Was it a one on one
Where can I find these figures?
Luckily you don’t need to calculate these yourself. You can find xG figures on analysis websites, bookmaker sites and they are on a ton of other websites after the game is finished.
There is a range of xG tables you can check for previous home and away performance as well.
Typically Bookmaker already includes xG figures and that is reflected in their odds. But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t conduct your own research too. You can quickly see how teams are performing and their goal opportunity in recent matches and the quality of those opportunities.
That is going to help you decide whether it is worth betting on an FHG or any other similar type of bet, before risking your hard-earned money.
xG isn’t the only thing you should look out for though, there is only a piece of the puzzle. You should also be looking at other analytic figures such as, but not limited to:
- Injury News
- Opposition Quality
- Home and Away Form
- Recent Form
- Player Suspensions
- League Position
- Betting Odds
- Inplay Odds
- Historical Form
- Current Momentum & Potential Momentum
- Recent Results
We conduct all this research in our Tips that we send out to hundreds of subscribers every day.